By the Year 2100, Lagos is Projected to Be The Most Populous City in the World

By the year 2100, Lagos is projected to undergo a demographic transformation that could make it the most populous city on Earth. Current estimates from the Global Cities Institute and other research bodies suggest that the city’s population could surge to as many as 88 million people, with some extreme models even hinting at the 100 million mark. This exponential growth is driven by high fertility rates across Nigeria and a relentless pace of rural-to-urban migration, as thousands arrive daily in search of the "Lagos Dream."

The sheer scale of this growth presents a monumental challenge for urban planning and infrastructure. Currently, Lagos is already known for its legendary traffic congestion and a housing market that struggles to keep up with demand. To accommodate a future population nearly four times its current size, the city is looking toward radical solutions. Projects like Eko Atlantic, which involves reclaiming land from the Atlantic Ocean, and the development of new "satellite towns" are early attempts to expand the city's physical footprint and provide structured living spaces for the coming millions.

​Economically, a city of 88 million people would represent one of the largest concentrated markets in human history. Lagos already serves as the financial nerve center of West Africa, but its future role would be even more dominant. The "youth bulge" with over 40% of the current population under the age of 25 offers a massive potential workforce that could drive innovation in technology, finance, and creative industries. However, this potential can only be realized if the city successfully transitions into a formal, "21st-century economy" that can provide stable employment at an unprecedented scale.

​Environmental resilience will be the defining survival factor for the future of Lagos. Being a low-lying coastal city, Lagos faces significant threats from rising sea levels and coastal erosion. The "Great Wall of Lagos," an 8.5-kilometer sea wall built to protect Eko Atlantic, is a symbol of the engineering feats required to keep the city dry. Moving forward, the government must also tackle the "Urban Heat Island" effect and waste management issues that naturally intensify as population density reaches world-record levels.

Ultimately, the trajectory of Lagos toward 2100 is not just a Nigerian story, but a global one. As the world's population center shifts toward Africa, the success or failure of Lagos in managing its growth will serve as a blueprint for other emerging megacities. If the city can balance its vibrant, chaotic energy with sustainable infrastructure and inclusive governance, it will not only be the world's most populous city but also a global leader in urban resilience and economic dynamism.